resignation
• [medical, political] & [non-expert, foreign, anti-vaxer] committee review of behaviour needed
• [loss of license, fines, jail] if guilty of [unethicaalcal behaviour, mass [betrayal, criminal, greed, manslaughter, murder]

20Dec2020 update, Youyang Gu's comments on closing his forecasting activity

Ourworldindata.org - New corona virus cases/day/population for selected countries (3-day average):

Ourworldindata.org - More extensive daily cases charts for countries, by region :

Spreadsheets for generating the charts :

Jumping off the cliff and into conclusions :

1. << 0.1% 5-month death rate (deaths/5 months/total US population) to 04Aug2020
   • using the highest YYG projections as of 11May2020, rounded significantly up to 350k
   • using a 2019 US population of 350M (rounded up for easy math).
   In other words, >> 99% of total population survives until 04Aug2020 (unless the end of the world occurs before then "Flattening the curve" means "Extending the curve" - While this is a wild guess, the data and better models seem suggestive of this speculation. Time may tell, but for example, it will be interesting to see if the "areas under the curve" for the [US, UK, Canada] eventually come out to the same as [Spain, Italy]. This implies the some number of deaths may ultimately result IN SPITE of [self-siolation, social distancing, etc], minus the portion saved (20-40%??) thanks to being able to moderate the load on the medical system (avoiding triage, giving medical staff a chance to more thoroughly caare for the seriously affected), and perhaps allowing alternative medical treatments to help until a vaccine becomes available in 1-2 years. Of course, most will object to this suggestion, but essentially all [health, medical, policy] experts have been impressively wrong all the way through this, in spite of modern medicine and health policy, several thousand years of history and experience with pandemics, and advanced results from China.
2. European-descended countries seem to be having the worst of it, according to the limited selection of countries above.
3. Sweden, a country that didn't go with strict [self-isolation, social distancing, etc], and didn't trash their economy, has results similar to the UK.
4. Canada is doing surprisingly well.
5. Don't necessarily blame the [crash, recession] on COVID-19!! - For a few rare nut-cases like myself, a 1929-style crash has been in the making for years, and was expected >1.5 years before the crash hit. While it is obvious that the corona virus at least catalysed the crash, one might also speculate that the timing of the corona virus coincides with the approximate timing it "should have happened" by ~[11, 60]-year solar cycles (more on that below).
6. The cure may be many times worse than the disease - See the section below "The same number of people could die from 'deaths of despair' as have already died in the U.S. from coronavirus, new study finds".
7. Chicken Little is a murderer? - myself included. This stupid comment follows from assuming that the point above could prove out. But considering that the [crash, recession] may have come anyways (as suggested above) then Chicken Little isn't really the primary culprit, but IS an accessory to the crime? What about the boy who cried wolf? Was he involved too? For myself, astronomy (the sun, it's drivers, and cosmic/galactic rays) is actually a primary suspect, with Chicken Little, a secondary suspect. Remember though - innocent until proven guilty.
8. See the "Questions" section below for more zany issues...

COVID-19 data and models

Corona virus models of [infections, deaths] cart [daily, total] : comparison of [YYG , Uof Washington IHME] projections

YYG (11May2020 projections)	Uof Washinton - IHME (10May2020 projections)

YYG infections, UoW IHME hospital resource usage :

YYG comparison of several model projections :

Is the cure worse than the disease? Self-isolation, Social distancing, business shutdowns, job losses, economic recession"

Ben Davidson 07Apr2020 "Space Weather : NOT Pandemics"

Ben Davidson 23Apr2020 "Millions Are Being Murdered, The Killer Cure"

David Spielhalter 26May2020 "Risk of dying if you get coronavirus vs normal annual risk"

Quentin Fottrell 09May2020 "The same number of people could die from 'deaths of despair' as have already died in the U.S. from coronavirus, new study finds"

Howell 09May2020 - FAR MORE Americans will die from the recession than corona virus

Cosmic/Galactic rays at historical high in summer 2019 :

• Multiple Conflicting Hypothesis - don't throw out ideas if they provide balance, not a tool of my tools
• solar behaviour is beyond the capabilities of essentially all [government, academic] scientists, complete failures are the norm, no matter how convincing the rhetoric.
• Similar to Milankovic theory for glaciations : the theory is clearly wrong (as are it's descendants), but it's still a handy rule of thumb.
• The cosmic-galactic ray theme as a driver of higher mutations favouring pandemics is not at all [supported, established]. It's just my quirky speculation.is far from
• Nobody else has anything at all beyond the normal con-scientists playing with universal function approximators, and delinquent theories that died long ago except in the minds of their disciples (are we all).

Questions, Successes, Failures :

Questions :

1. Almost-linear projections of cumulative [cases, deaths] into the future, rather than an inverted U shape with extended leg?
   • YYG projects an almost flat daily death rate to 04Aug2020, and an almost linear rise in cumulative [infection, deaths].
   • The Uof Washington IHME projects an inverted U shaped daily death curve that dies around 04Aug2020, and an almost asymptotic cumulative projection into the future.
   My own pure guess is that the YYG projection is more likely as long as strict self-isolation and "social distancing" is followed, and as long as the infection rates aren't above some threshold (40-70% - I haven't seen numbers for that, but it is implicit in many models).
2. Why do new cases/day/population vary so dramatically amoung countries? Is there a big differential in susceptibility? It really looks like the causcasian populations are the main problem, but other factors could explain [some, all] of that. Poor compliance to self-isolation, the wearing masks if indeed that is important (beliefs vary), ??? are examples of other potential explanations.
3. Is the weekly pronounced variation of new cases something that can be used to estimate the effects of relaxing, abandoning] self-isolation etc? My guess is that it is being used by a very few experts. But based on media comments by essentially all others, and their poor performance to date in their [explanations, advice] to the public, we can't rely on them in their own field of expertise.
4. Do masks for the general population help? This wasn't even a question for the Far East. Maybe that doesn't explain the huge difference in impacts, maybe it does, along with other factors like [gloves, always at work, compliance, travel, ???].
5. Why is there NO mention of the sun? In spite of uncertainties and failures of solar models to some extent, they are still the ONLY major exogenous variable with major [modelling, predictive] power for periods greater than a few few months. This is very reminiscent of the book "Mankind in amnesia" by Immanual Velikovsky's daughter. That book tries to explain the blindness of scientists and their nasty behaviour in dealing with his work, by considering why that arises so much across history when dealing with astronomical issues.
6. Has Western society lost it's ability to put things in context, and make hard-nosed decisions?
9. obviously, I still have items to add...

Why are European-descended countries particularly hard hit? :

1. Don't forget that many other countries have had severe problems, not just European-descended. It's just that it is more the norm for the European-descended.
2. Are European-descended nations harder-hit, or does the available data only make it look so? There are huge issues with data, even with the best of data under laboratory conditions, and when dealing with regions around the world, things get complicated really fast.
3. Behaviours, laws - Far Eastern countries are used to wearing [masks, gloves]? They can be brutal on the enforcement side, even though they don't have to be to get very good compliance anyways.
4. Self-isolation, Social-distancing - Maany countries have very low covid cases, and yet it's vbery difficult for me to imagine social distancing for most of the world. Think : [Bangladesh, India, China, Hong Kong,...]. Does that term even have the same meaning in places like that?
5. Immune systems - This whole issue reminds me of my frather's experience when working in South-East asia. When seeing people [bath, cook, brush teeth, play, work] in rivers and streams that were about the samea as our sewage effluent, he asked a local that he was working with : "I don't understand how any of you can survive!" The answer : "You have to understand that if you survive past the age of five, there just aren't many diseases that can kill you!". A jestful response, but perhaps full of meaning. Contrast that to our suspicions for allergies etc, that perhaps we are not exposed enough to, to build up effective immune sytems.
6. Business travel - New York is a great example of a major intenational business center that really had a hard time with COVID-19. Not all international business ceters seem to have had quite the same problem, but it may be a factor.
7. Tourism - This might explain some of the problems with [Spain, Italy]. It is very interesting to note that Paris, apparently the world's #1 tourist destination for some time(?) was not an issue in the news that I read.
8. Do many other countries even care? Given the relatively very low impact of COVID-19 in many coutries so far, and the prevalence of so many other killer diseases all of the time, do they look at us as making a tempest in a teapot?
9. Vaccines - On a separate, crazy note, which does not belong here, I just read a fascinating section on suspicions that vaccines may have greatly contributed to the Spanish flu effects. Actually laboratory exposures (mucous transfers etc), researchers found it hard too get any transmission (???!!!). I'm a fan of vaccines, and I haven't read any further, but just something to pursue long after I'm dead.
10. ... there area huge number of other factors

Was the virus made in a lab in China? :

1. To me, the starting point is to actually look into the question "Why are European descended nations among the hardest hit?" as listed above!! It seems to me that very simple explanations, backed by [long, difficult] research, can easily explain the effects many times over? This is a complete guess on my part, but those questions are more [broad, deep, interesting] than the bio-weapons drumbeat, and they have a vastly better chance of generating useful results.
2. I'm not a fan of conspiracy theories in general. Even though conspiracies exists (eg sports teams conspire to defeat their opponents), in general you seem to have to wade through 10,000 announcements of conspiracy to find one that may be reasonable. For the most part, these beliefs seem to mostly reflect [bias, fear, hatred, wishful thinking] of their proponents, or are a means of promoting a political view and attack opponents.
3. It seems to me, naively, that the overwhelming majority of "conspiracies" (nd often crimes) are the product of stupidity, not well-[designed, planned, executed] ill-intent. On that basis, I suspect that most of my [family, friends, collegues] think that I am conspiring all of the time!
4. If you want to believe that China made the virus intentionally to see if there is any support for the idea, well, that's much easier said than done. Rather than [yapping, waving your arms] like everybody else, put in a few weeks full-time equivalent work to research into it. Add to the light, not to the noise. There are plenty of others that want to be seen as "prescient leaders" by blurting out things before their friends do.
5. On the completely inadequate basis of the daily cases per country as shown in the charts provided, it seems that European-descended countries are having a hard time - much more than the great majority of the rest of the world. It is similar to the much more limited MERS (?Middle East Respiratory Syndrome?) corona pandemic about 10 years ago. One could suspect a bio-weapons program, testing out one race at a time?
7. What about the US-born (so often stated) Spanish Flu of 1918, which completely dwarfs corona virus so far. Will you apply the conspiracy theory to the USA, and Canada, and ...?
8. Let's assume for now, that
9. Apparently, Dr. Fauci of the USA, the lead medical face for the war on COVID-19, might have had a joint research project with the Chinese on bat viruses? Is Dr. Fauci part of this evil conspiracy to kill us off? That's a diabolically fun idea, but not something I'd put my money on. Could his research have aided a bio-weapons program? Yes - like all virus research. Ideas aren't nailed to one plaace.
10. Assume for a moment that COVID-19 was the product of a bio-weapons progrm. Then :
    • Was its release intended or accidental. Accidental release is a pretty good probability for anybody - again, a possibility for the Spanish flu from the US? Intended release doesn't seem to match what we've seen? Everybody doing research to help save the world from pandemics is a potential source of the viral pandemics that they are trying to save us from.
    • Why on earth would you use corona virus of the type that has "escaped"? Why not use something far more [transmissible, deadly], and that is effective against working-aged people? Of course, the use of a "noticeable" pandemic, one that shows potential, but that doesn't cause WWIII, is a plausible reason.
    • Have the "so-called evil Chinese" done us a huge favour?
      • At the actual level of impact of COVID-19, this has been a great wake-up call for us to continue and extend pandemic preparations, which might have been too focussed on influenza despite previous corona virus outbreaks? That might sound callous given the deaths, but a loss of attention is like the challenge of safety - it's always an issue, and easy to lose.
      • If the pandemic was a deliberate bio-weapons attack, then in spite of their intentions, they have done us such a HUGE favour that it's difficult to put it on a scale! Hard-core [evidence, analysis] of bio-weapons actions would provide enormous drive to our efforts at defense, potentially saving vastly more than what is at stake with COVID-19, and in very strategic contexts. Of course, everybody dismissed such ideas before (eg chemical wepaons in the Mid-East).

Apparent successes of the medical, scientific] experts? :

1. Medical system - I feel that the medical system, and the people in it, have done an admirable job. I DON'T so much criticise our systems for being un-prepared, as that is difficult to sustain over long periods with such huge competition for [priorities, funds]. It is far too easy to be an arm-chair critic in hindsite. The system has been anticipating another influenza pandemic, and that may still happen. But there are key differences with the corona virus, including the need for special respirators.
2. Early anticipation that COVID-19 would NOT be much of a problem (including ?Fauchie, who apparently collaborated on bat virus research, if I remember correctly?) - I think that criticisms are misplaced. Who would have anticipated that COVID-19 would be especially problematic for European-descended nations? This will sometimes be the case. An example is the previous MERS corona pandemic, which apparently affected mostly Middle Eastern countries.
3. Data collection - Although I wonder if the data was best presented, and there will always be huge problems collecting it (especially in developing nations?), our medical systems did a superb job.
4. Pandemic modelling - When I worked as a chemical commodity market research manager, the joke was that "... Forecasting is a particularly hazardous occupation, especally if you try to apply it to the future. ...". The models have been key to helping to prioritize resources! Intersting point - the YYG model claims to be using "Atificial intelligence". Here is yet another area where the experts may be trounced hands down by the machines.
6. Behaviour changes - It is difficult to change habits, and to encourage people to change their behaviours when the danger doesn't seem close and imminent. Overall, I thik this went very well, although I wonder if we shouldn't have tried to emphasize [masks, glos] more. Maybe it would have made a huge difference, maybe not, but
7. Vaccines - still to come, and yet there are a very impressive array of old and new science projects to combat the corona viruses. Some, like the RNA-based vaccines, will possibly be revolutionary, and not just for pandemics!
8. obviously, this list is woefully short!... There are a lot of great aspects to the experts' responses and policy actions.

Apparent failures of essentially ALL [medical, scientific] experts, and the mass media? :

1. Ignore health effects from [self-isolation, economic impacts] - Experts have been all-to-happy to cite the long-standing (and apparently taught in at least a few economics classes) 40,000 deaths per 1% increase in unemployment, when that was helpful for their purposes. Now that we are [actively, purposely] trashing down the economy in a HUGE way, all of that thinking suddenly disappears? Bullshit. All we hear is that we have to spend a ton of money on mental health issues. That is important, but also convenient. Apparently only President Trump and a very few others have been publicly raising the importance of getting back to work.
2. We are all going to die -
3. "Killing the dead" - HUGE omission of thinking with many public health issues, not just pandemics! In other words, what fraction of deaths occurred with those right on the edge? Some experts actually tried to make it look like we are ALL at high risk (sometimes even equally), and statements like that still come out. No mention of the virus having the "key" to specific individuals immune systems to explain the small portion of [younger adults, children].
4. The public was led to believe that self-isolation & other measures would endure [2 weeks -> 1 month -> 1.5 months]. The 2-week announcement to the public was based on what kind of thinking? Was this manipulated to make it easier for people to go along? (in other words, we were lied to big time) Even seasonal flu doesn't follow that time frame, and we have vaccines for it (albeit not always effective)!
5. Bell-curve of quick extinction of [infection, death]s - To me, this was always questionable, as the basis for pandemics was that their termination was caused by :
   • the virus gradually runs out of "fresh victims", while the infected population largely becomes resistant, while a few die. In the case of ebola, 1918 Spanish flu] population, the death rates were much higher, and this was a possibility, but after the China example, the question was whether death rates would be far greater for various countries.
   • a vaccine becomes available, or mediating medical treatments drastically reduce the effects of the virus.
   But it doesn't look like there was sufficient consideration for how [self-isolation, social distancing, etc] might seriously extend the curves.
6. We didn't know what to expect - Blatently not correct, as China had already provided the example, along with [SARS, MERS] 10 years before. Big surprises can happen, but that applies to every disease. Are we now going to shut down whole sectors of the economy for three months every year for [seasonal flu, common cold, etc]?
7. We can avoid the problem by strict self-isolation and other measures - No, the virus does not appear to be losing interest and disappearing on its own. This kind of thinking one expects from babies ("peek a boo"), very young children (close your eyes to hide), and apparently expert scientists as well. As for the mass media : "peek a boo!".
8. They didn't consider that "Flattening the curve" may also mean "extending the curve", or if they did, they weren't honest about it. This is a huge failure of thinking.
9. It is necessary to disrupt 100% of the population for only ~5%, and at the same time mis-allocate resources so that the 5% were not properly protected.
10. It seems that vastly better information is available on the blogs, often provided with analysis by complete amateurs, than from the mass media.
11. I suspect that there are several excellent analysis by [medical, scientific] experts, but that this is drown out almost completely by [conventional, conformist, highly [constrained, limited] beliefs by essentially all other experts (one in ten thousand rule).
12. obviously, I still have items to add...

The population in general

Break on through to the Dark Side

Howell's blog posts to MarketWatch etc